Reliance Industries' refining earnings will remain steady, supported by its position as India's largest importer of Russian crude and favourable global supplies, according to analysts at JM Financial and Goldman Sachs. Reliance imported more Russian barrels than any other Indian refiner in the past eight months, according to data from Bloomberg/Kpler.
Oil economists have been arguing the world over, a full removal of subsidies is the only way consumption will fall
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
"In principle, the ask in return is that India should not support the G7 (Group of Seven) proposal. "A decision on this issue will be taken later following talks with all the partners," an official with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said.These "substantial discounts" will be steeper than those offered by Iraq in the past two months, officials said.
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
If the war in the Israel-Gaza region escalates into a larger West Asian conflict, it could pose problems.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
The Iran-Israel conflict has further increased global economic uncertainties, impacting world trade, including India's exports, as it is expected to drive up both air and sea freight rates, exporters say. They said that India's exports to Europe and counters like Russia may get impacted due to this war.
The state-run Indian Oil Corporation on Wednesday said it plans to begin the commodity derivative transactions in a few weeks as part of its risk management strategy against the volatile international crude oil prices.
The falls meant that both crude futures were at their lowest levels since mid-April
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
Jet fuel prices on Wednesday were hiked by over 18 per cent -- the steepest ever increase -- to all-time high levels after international oil price surged to a multi-year high.
An empowered group of ministers headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, which decides on revising rates of the sensitive products, has not met since June last year even though crude oil prices have spiralled upward by about 50 per cent.
Sensex heavyweight Reliance Industries fell 2.76 per cent. In percentage terms, major laggards were Yes Bank, Indusind Bank, RIL, ICICI Bank, HDFC and Axis Bank -- plunging as much as 6.62 per cent.
Despite the crash in crude oil prices, Indians still pay a high price for petrol.
The oil sector has been quite lucky for the Modi government. It has often provided an opportunity to the government to mend its finances, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'From tariff tensions and border skirmishes to unrest in West Asia.' 'The worst may be behind us. But any further upmove will now have to come from earnings.'
Notwithstanding the windfall tax placing a cap on profits, oil and gas producers like Oil India (OIL) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) have done well in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) of 2022-23 (FY23). ONGC faces the drag of poor results from its subsidiary Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and in comparative terms, OIL is better off. Standalone net sales in Q3FY23 stood at Rs 5,900 crore - up 57 per cent year-on-year (YoY), up 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
Among the Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Eternal, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and UltraTech Cement were the gainers. Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Kotak Mahindra Bank, PowerGrid and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
Oil Minister Murli Deora on Wednesday said his ministry is not in favour of raising diesel and domestic LPG prices as response to spurt in global crude oil prices, as the move will add to already high inflation rate.
The benchmark Indian crude oil basket is now estimated to average $77.88 a barrel for FY19, compared to the government's earlier estimate of $65 a barrel for the year and $56.39 for FY18
With global crude oil prices climbing to their highest level in two-and-a-half years, Oil Minister S Jaipal Reddy on Friday said a ministerial panel will take a call on raising petrol and diesel prices.
The recent issues dogging West Asia have become a major cause for concern due to the spike in the crude oil prices.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased marginally to 12.07 per cent in June as crude oil and food items witnessed some softening in prices. However, WPI inflation remained in double digit for the third consecutive month in June, mainly due to a low base of last year. WPI inflation was (-) 1.81 per cent, in June 2020. Snapping the five straight months of uptick, the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation in June softened as prices of food articles and crude oil eased, even though manufactured products hardened.
Budget is widely seen as a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
Six non-BJP ruled states -- West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Kerala and Jharkhand -- have not reduced the VAT on petroleum products, leading to higher prices of petrol and diesel there, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Thursday. Puri said in Lok Sabha that the central government has reduced excise duty on petroleum products and some other states, following cues, reduced their Value Added Tax (VAT). Six states -- West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Kerala and Jharkhand -- have not reduced the VAT, he said amidst vocal protests by the opposition members.
The government's plans to reign in petroleum subsidies to plug the fiscal deficit next financial year are in jeopardy, as a whopping Rs 2.13 lakh-crore revenue loss is expected at the current levels of global crude oil prices and domestic retail prices of controlled products.
India's import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May and is now more than the combined oil bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and the US, industry data showed. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia now makes up for nearly 42 per cent of all crude oil India imported in May.
Brent hit a session high of $114.69 a barrel, its loftiest since September last year.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, rose to $130.50 per barrel on Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. The international benchmark, Brent crude, hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008.
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
Countries have to start replenishing inventories soon, supply remains tight, and the fall in demand isn't large enough all of which suggests higher prices
Government on Tuesday said it was considering whether to increase prices of petrol and diesel due to increase in international crude oil prices.
Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun N Murti says crude oil prices may touch $200 in the next two years.
Marico reported consolidated revenue growth of 20 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY25. Domestic revenue surged 23 per cent Y-o-Y, while volume growth was 7 per cent. International growth stood at 11 per cent (16 per cent in constant currency growth).
From the Sensex basket, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Infosys, HCL Technologies and Asian Paints were the major gainers. NTPC, JSW Steel and HDFC Bank were the laggards.
"Under different scenarios, we see the impact of higher crude prices ranging from $25 billion to a maximum of $50 billion on the oil import bill. The increase in the oil import bill will also affect the current account deficit," economic affairs secretary S C Garg said in a conference on Friday.
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